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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-12-28T12:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-12-28T12:39Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9936/-1
CME Note: CME is associated with a M1.8 class flare from AR 2473.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-12-31T00:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-12-30T21:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2015 Dec 28 2315 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
The M1.8 flare from NOAA AR 2473 peaking at 12:45UT was associated with a partial halo CME first visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 12:12UT. It had an angular width of close to 250 degrees with primary angle to the South-West off the Sun-Earth line. Projected speeds were in the order of 600 km/s with a slightly faster component towards the South-East.
An impact at Earth can be expected in the afternoon of December 30 (around 21:00 UT).
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Lead Time: 48.80 hour(s)
Difference: 3.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-12-28T23:14Z

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